A Rule of Thumb When Betting on Caucuses

Always bet on the candidate whose supporters have been to caucus before.

People always make the mistake of assuming that you can handicap caucuses the way you handicap actual elections.  (Keep that in mind when you’re reading the polls.)

Compared to caucuses, elections are simple.  A voter shows up at the polling place between the hours of 7 am and 7 pm (roughly), checks in, votes, and leaves.    No problem.  It takes about ten minutes.  Got a morning meeting?  Swing by the polling place at lunch.  Or after work.  Or just vote absentee.  For a first-time voter, it’s pretty user-friendly. [Read more...]

Telling Signs in New Hampshire

Yard signs, that is.  The sheer number of Republican yard signs in New Hampshire is staggering.

(For those of you scoring at home, there are more Romney signs in New Hampshire right now than all of the other candidates combined.  After Romney there’s a growing crop of Huntsman signs, plenty of Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich signs and a smattering of Santorum signs.  I didn’t see a single Perry or Bachmann sign.)

But the signs are everywhere, and not just on empty lots and medians.  They’re on front lawns and in the windows of businesses.  They’re in every neighborhood and in front of every type of house.

Barack Obama is in big trouble. [Read more...]

Strassel’s Warning to Republicans

Kimberly Strassel, writing in the Wall Street Journal, has a warning for Republicans:

Simply, Republicans must make the moral case for smaller, less-intrusive government, using examples such as Solyndra and Obamacare to highlight federal government overreach.

Strassel notes that voters connect “overspending” to the general incompetence of Washington – and Republicans as well as Democrats carry the Beltway stigma.  If Republicans want to win in 2012, they need to create a clear contrast with Democrats by explaining why overspending is damaging to the country.  They must provide concrete examples of government failure and explain what they would do differently.

Citing swing-state focus groups conducted by American Crossroads, she explains: [Read more...]

2012: The Lost Generation – Don’t Blame Bush

Philip Klein has a column in the Examiner titled: “Blame Bush if you don’t like the 2012 field.”

Though many on the Right were looking for a dream candidate in the mold of new stars such as Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Gov. Scott Walker, R-Wis., with less than two weeks before Iowa, they’re stuck with a group of presidential candidates who are retreads from a different era, insufficiently conservative or implausible.

Though there are a number of reasons for this, the simplest explanation is that it’s a legacy of the Bush era. George W. Bush campaigned for president in 2000 as a “compassionate conservative” who believed in using government to promote social good.

He goes on:

Between 2001 and 2009, Republicans who were in the typical grooming positions for the presidency got coaxed into supporting Bush’s big government policies — all of which makes them less appealing to today’s Tea Party electorate.

Rick Santorum provides the perfect case study for Klein: As a ”loyal soldier” in the Senate, Santorum “voted for the Medicare prescription drug plan, No Child Left Behind and a bloated highway bill among other big government initiatives.”  Adding insult to injury, Santorum lost his Senate seat in the anti-Bush wave of 2006.

Klein is half right.  Yes, anyone who served in Washington during the Bush years is tarnished by the agenda of “compassionate conservatism.”  And Bush (obviously) deserves a lot of the blame.

But Klein’s thesis leaves out the governors – and the leftward, large-government drift of the Republican leadership at the state level can’t be blamed on George W. Bush.

Surveying the field, the big-name Republican governors with the experience to run for President in 2012 all have their own big-government histories as well.  From 2001-2008, the Republican party at every level was dominated by politicians who sought government “solutions” in areas where the government has no business getting larger and more intrusive.  The most obvious examples are health care, cap-and-trade, “green jobs” programs and crony capitalism.

Mitt Romney is just the most obvious example with his health care plan.  But Tim Pawlenty embraced cap-and-trade and Rick Perry had a state-level incubator program that can only be described as crony capitalism.  Their states weren’t unique.

So Washington politicians were corrupted by the Bush agenda and state-level politicians were corrupted by… us.  We went along with this stuff.  We nominated the candidates with the windmills on their direct mail pieces and traded our ideology of free markets for a platform that called for ”investments” in unproven technologies and “incentives” for well-connected businesses.

Here’s what we’re left with as we head into Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina:

1. Republicans need to admit that the entire field is flawed.  Every candidate is susceptible to the “gotcha” game when we compare records over the past decade.

2. Therefore, this election is about trust: Who do we trust to stand strong moving forward?  Very simply, who will make the best President?

Finally, Republicans can take solace in the fact that we’re in the process of electing a new generation of post-Bush leadership.  They didn’t have the experience to make a run in 2012, but Senators Rand Paul, Mike Lee and Marco Rubio, Governors Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal and Scott Walker and scores of Representatives in Congress came into office on a wave of reform that demanded free markets, smaller government and a less intrusive state.

It’s now our job to make sure they don’t suffer the same fate of the Rick Santorums of the Bush era.

The Public Pension Crisis

Where are your tax dollars going?

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — After nearly 40 years in public education, Patrick Godwin spends his retirement days running a horse farm east of Sacramento, Calif., with his daughter.

His departure from the workaday world is likely to be long and relatively free of financial concerns, after he retired last July at age 59 with a pension paying $174,308 a year for the rest of his life.

Such guaranteed pensions for relatively youthful government retirees — paid in similar fashion to millions nationwide — are contributing to nationwide friction with the public sector workers. They have access to attractive defined-benefit pensions and retiree health care coverage that most private sector workers no longer do.

Will the last taxpayer leaving Ohio please turn out the lights?

(It should be noted that when we talk about the “one percent” – you know those evil millionaires – people like Patrick Godwin aren’t included, even though the net present value of a defined benefit retirement program like his is well into the seven figures.)

(Via Instapundit, who comments: “Something that can’t go on forever, won’t.”)

Stupid SOPA… What Could Go Wrong?

Really, what’s a worst-case scenario if we hand the government a “kill switch” for the internet?

Oh… that’s right… something like this:

Here’s a plausible campaign scenario under SOPA. Imagine you are running for Congress in a competitive House district. You give a strong interview to a local morning news show and your campaign posts the clip on your website. When your opponent’s campaign sees the video, it decides to play hardball and sends a notice to your Internet service provider alerting them to what it deems “infringing content.” It doesn’t matter if the content is actually pirated. The ISP has five days to pull down your website and the offending clip or be sued. If you don’t take the video down, even if you believe that the content is protected under fair use, your website goes dark.

There’s more.  (There’s always more.)  So read the whole thing.

(Via Instapundit.)

Climategate 2.0

Read the emails.  Forbes contributor James Taylor has.

Three themes are emerging from the newly released emails: (1) prominent scientists central to the global warming debate are taking measures to conceal rather than disseminate underlying data and discussions; (2) these scientists view global warming as a political “cause” rather than a balanced scientific inquiry and (3) many of these scientists frankly admit to each other that much of the science is weak and dependent on deliberate manipulation of facts and data.

Another Transplant

Lee Habeeb had an excellent column on NRO in September, “Southern Like Me,” about the “great migration south.”

According to the latest Census figures, and stories in USA Today, the Associated Press, and elsewhere, the South was the fastest growing region in America over the last decade, up 14 percent… That migration wasn’t limited to white Yankees like me. The nation’s African American population grew 1.7 million over the last decade — and 75 percent of that growth occurred in the South, according to William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution. What those stories and studies failed to report were the reasons propelling that migration. The economic and cultural forces driving this migration south have been ignored by the press. And by the Obama administration.

Habeeb recounts his own experience as a transplant, dealing with Yankee and popular culture misconceptions and prejudices (some of which were his own). [Read more...]

Sorry Governor Johnson, But According to the Media, “Republican” Can Never Equal “Cool”

It would jeopardize the media narrative that Republicans are stodgy old white men who can’t relate to the “MTV Generation.”

The DailyCaller describes what’s been going on:

A wildly successful two-term governor of a swing state, Johnson was prohibited from joining all but two of the GOP presidential debates because of his poor showing in the polls.

His supporters point out, however, that Johnson’s name was often excluded from polls, which kept him out of the debates and in turn hurt his standing in the few polls he was included in. The Republican National Committee refused to help him break this cycle and, perhaps sensing an opportunity, Libertarian Party members began to encourage him to jump ship.

As Johnson put it in a letter to the RNC: [Read more...]

$16 Per Gallon for “Green” Biofuel for the Navy

Lunacy.

SolyndraGate was no isolated case of corrupt government misspending. The U.S. Navy was just forced to buy 450,000 gallons of biofuels from an Obama-connected firm at an outrageous $16 per gallon.

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